Any chaos will be in Kent ( and other UK lorry parks )

The UK Government  narrative is clear. If there's friction exporting to the EU and it's "all a bit slipshod and disorganised and there's therefore chaos because of failure of the EU to plan" then HMG is going to blame the direct consequences of leaving the Customs Union and Single Market on the EU. We've left the EU and at the end of the year we exit the Withdrawal Agreement's Transition Period that's been in place since the 1st of Feb. During the Transition Period we continued to be in the Customs Union and Single Market although no longer an EU member. That's what's kept our imports and exports flowing freely since then. It means we're yet to feel the practical effects of Brexit. Next year the EU will continue to exist and operate its Customs Union and Single Market. With or without an FTA, as we'll be outside the Customs Union and Single Market and a third country, all our exports to the EU will be subject to checks at the border. Wh
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Actions speak louder than words

I've not written much stuff about Brexit here but that's going to change!

The UK has formally left the EU under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) which is now an in force international treaty.

The UK is in WA's transition period which lasts until the end of 2021 unless extended. The UK Government has stated many times that it does not wish to extend the transition period. Formally, under the terms of the WA, the extension option expires at the end of June so the UK and EU can concentrate on implementing what ever they've agreed will happen at the end of the transition period.

No matter what happens at the end of the transition period the WA will continue to be in effect and given the solution to the Irish Border problem it contains will come into effect.

When people have talked about the UK leaving the EU with no deal they often conflate the leaving deal ( the Withdrawal Agreement ) with the future trade deal. Now that the WA is ratified and in effect the UK has left with a leaving deal and is now negotiating a future trade deal.

As part of the leaving deal the EU wanted and got agreement on its three key things:

  • citizen's rights
  • protection of the Good Friday Agreement
  • settling the bill
Following the 2016 referendum, a Tory party leadership election, deadlock in Parliament as the Tory Party could not agree on what Brexit meant and a 2017 General Election that virtually wiped out PM May's majority in Parliament, May was unable to get a WA ratified in the UK Parliament.

The EU's original proposal ( with a border in the Irish Sea and application of many EU rules and checks until a future trade deal removed that need ) was soundly rejected as an agreement "No British Prime Minister could accept". A customs border within the UK being, to May, Johnson and many others, totally unacceptable.

PM May went back to the EU and they grudgingly agreed to extend the Irish solution to the whole of the UK. There would be no border in the Irish Sea but the entire UK would follow many EU rules and checks until a future trade deal removed that need. This was named the 'Irish Backstop'.

PM May could not get the UK Parliament to agree to this and eventually she resigned and Johnson won the resulting Tory party leadership election.

On becoming PM, Johnson has been keen to push on with Brexit and has focused on the headlines and ignored the details. This is going to cause the UK much shock and awe!

A key element of the Johnson narrative was the claim that he would get the EU to 'reopen the Withdrawal Agreement' and since the now ratified WA does not have an 'Irish Backstop' what did Johnson get changed?

What Johnson did to get rid of the Irish Backstop was to agree the EU's original WA with a border in the Irish Sea. Johnson was able to do this because he focused on getting a change - getting the EU to 'reopen the Withdrawal Agreement' and did not highlight the actual nature of the change.

Johnson accepted the very deal that that  previously "No British Prime Minister could accept" and claimed it as his own victory.


In going back to the EU's original proposal ( with a few wording changes that are really just window dressing ) the EU was happy to let Johnson have the appearance of victory for UK domestic politics as they would then get their original WA agreed.

The reality of the Johnson deal and the Irish Sea Border is now becoming apparent as work starts to create the Border Control Posts that goods travelling from Great Britain ( in the UK ) to Northern Ireland ( also in the UK ):


https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/brexiteer-sammy-wilson-told-larne-border-post-down-to-him-39316979.html

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