Any chaos will be in Kent ( and other UK lorry parks )

The UK Government  narrative is clear. If there's friction exporting to the EU and it's "all a bit slipshod and disorganised and there's therefore chaos because of failure of the EU to plan" then HMG is going to blame the direct consequences of leaving the Customs Union and Single Market on the EU. We've left the EU and at the end of the year we exit the Withdrawal Agreement's Transition Period that's been in place since the 1st of Feb. During the Transition Period we continued to be in the Customs Union and Single Market although no longer an EU member. That's what's kept our imports and exports flowing freely since then. It means we're yet to feel the practical effects of Brexit. Next year the EU will continue to exist and operate its Customs Union and Single Market. With or without an FTA, as we'll be outside the Customs Union and Single Market and a third country, all our exports to the EU will be subject to checks at the border. Wh
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Are the much touted Freeports dead on arrival?

I'm not a fan of Freeports as they've always seemed to be form of tariff manipulation taking advantage of 'tariff inversion'.

The process seems to be:
  • Import high tariff parts but pay no tariffs because you're in a Freeport.
  • Make a low tariff finished item in the Freeport.
  • Import that low tariff finished item into your country.
The net effect is that less import tariffs are paid to your country's Government. Does that mean everyone else is subsiding your business?

Here's an interesting article by the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University that looks into Freeports and what opportunity there is for them in the UK.

They've looked at the UK's proposed tariff and they say that there are few opportunities for tariff inversion in the UK's proposed tariff structure.

The summary to their analysis is:

The above analysis takes three different approaches to investigate the potential for duty savings from introducing Freeports in the UK. They all tell the same story: introducing Freeports in the UK is unlikely to generate any significant benefits to businesses in terms of duty savings. Tariffs on intermediates tend to be low in the UK, typically lower than tariffs on final goods, which rules out duty savings in most cases. In addition, in those sectors for which we have been able to identify any inversion, the benefits are small and would not have any material impact on the UK economy.

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