Any chaos will be in Kent ( and other UK lorry parks )

The UK Government  narrative is clear. If there's friction exporting to the EU and it's "all a bit slipshod and disorganised and there's therefore chaos because of failure of the EU to plan" then HMG is going to blame the direct consequences of leaving the Customs Union and Single Market on the EU.

We've left the EU and at the end of the year we exit the Withdrawal Agreement's Transition Period that's been in place since the 1st of Feb. During the Transition Period we continued to be in the Customs Union and Single Market although no longer an EU member. That's what's kept our imports and exports flowing freely since then. It means we're yet to feel the practical effects of Brexit.

Next year the EU will continue to exist and operate its Customs Union and Single Market. With or without an FTA, as we'll be outside the Customs Union and Single Market and a third country, all our exports to the EU will be subject to checks at the border. While not everything need be checked ( the EU operates a risk based checking policy ) there will be checks to be done and import duties to pay ( reduced if there's an FTA ) and import VAT ( not reduced if there's an FTA ). There will also be all the animal product health checks - the sanitary and phytosanitary checks.

There will be delays and, given what's happening with the UK's Internal Markets Bill ( which Stormont rejected today!) little trust from the EU side.

If there is a delaying getting goods into the EU Eustice should be aware that the chaos will actually be in the UK. If there's any backlog of vehicles in EU ports waiting for customs checks the ferry companies won't be allowed to bring more goods vehicles to those EU ports. The goods vehicles will have to wait at UK ports ( hence all those new lorry parks ) until the ferry companies are cleared to bring some more over. The Eurotunnel will have a similar problem.

https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1308448260747669504

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